Construction backlog in the U.S. reached 8.1 months in February, a small gain from January but still below pre-pandemic levels, according to a survey by the Associated Builders and Contractors.
The group’s Construction Backlog Indicator, based on responses collected between Feb. 20 and March 6, rose 0.1 months from the previous month. It sits 0.2 months under the same period last year.
Midwest leads regional growth
The Middle States region, which includes 12 states from Illinois to Montana, recorded the largest backlog increase in February. This area is the only one where backlog now exceeds year-ago levels, reflecting stronger project pipelines in the central U.S.
ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu explained that the region has recovered faster than others since the pandemic. “After an initial slowdown, the Midwest has experienced notable population and economic growth over the past year,” he stated. “That expansion has directly boosted construction activity.”
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The South, which usually leads in construction volume, held steady at 8.5 months, while the West and Northeast stayed below the national average.
Contractor confidence remains positive but cautious
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index showed mixed results among contractors. Expectations for sales and hiring improved in February, though profit margin forecasts softened slightly.
All three measures—sales, profit margins, and staffing—stay above 50, meaning contractors still expect growth in the next six months. Only sales expectations have strengthened compared to last year.
Basu highlighted risks that could weaken this outlook. “The conflict in Iran, which began during this survey period, may reduce demand for certain construction types due to higher materials prices and borrowing costs,” he noted. “Rising oil prices could also pressure profit margins, even as hiring expectations reached their highest point since March 2025.”
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Data center projects continue to extend backlogs, with contractors in that sector reporting 11.2 months of work under contract. Those without such projects average 7.6 months.
Historical context and methodology
The Construction Backlog Indicator tracks the volume of work under contract but not yet completed, using the latest financial data. The Construction Confidence Index measures contractors’ six-month outlook for sales, profit margins, and staffing levels.
Both measures were updated in 2020 to match survey periods. The backlog figure represents work on the books as of the previous month, while the confidence index reflects forward-looking sentiment.
Though February showed a slight increase, backlog remains below historical averages. Basu called the current level “subdued” but avoided predicting a decline. “Contractors are still hopeful, but that hope is easily shaken,” he said.
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